Question Political Analysts

On Super Tuesday night I heard analysts of both Republican and Democratic races make statements such as 'A percent of conservative independents chose Obama over Clinton' or 'More conservative Democrats picked Huckabee over both McCain and Romney.' The statements were couched as though it were the end all of everything to cover the group mentioned and that if the person they voted for were not to win, they were out of the November equation.

The fact is that someone that voted for Romney in the primaries where McClain is likely to win, is pretty likely to vote for McCain in November. They are not likely to say "I wanted to support Romney, but since he didn't win the primaries, I think I'll vote for Obama instead of the Republican candidate." And, they are not likely to say "I voted for Edwards in the primary, so in November I will vote for McCain instead of the Democratic candidate."

I need you to think of it for yourself, but I think the November vote will look more like the Republican voters for Romney, Huckabee, and McCain will vote for McCain; and the voters that voted for Edwards, Clinton, and Obama will vote for Obama (or Clinton). What will make a difference is that some of the Independent votes may rearrange. And maybe not.

So, my thought ends up as your assignment: try to see if you can be more critically analytical than the analysts. Be skeptical of what analysts say and apply your analysis.

jb